Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

Baggaley, A., Boys, R. J., Golightly, A., Sarson, G. R. and Shukurov, A. (2012) Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period. [Data Collection]

Original publication URL: http://context-database.uni-koeln.de/
Datacite DOI: 10.1594/GFZ.CONTEXT.Ed1
Enlighten Publications URI: http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/id/eprint/78453

Collection description

We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.

College / School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics
Date Deposited: 01 Aug 2014 13:45
Enlighten Publications URL: http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/78453/
Related resource URL: http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/78453/
URI: http://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/id/eprint/41

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Baggaley, A., Boys, R. J., Golightly, A., Sarson, G. R. and Shukurov, A. (2012); Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

University of Glasgow

DOI: 10.1594/GFZ.CONTEXT.Ed1

Retrieved: 2021-04-18