Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

Baggaley, A. W. and Boys, R. J. and Golightly, A. and Sarson, G. R. and Shukurov, A. (2012) Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period. [Data Collection]

Original publication URL: http://context-database.uni-koeln.de/
Datacite DOI: 10.1594/GFZ.CONTEXT.Ed1

Collection description

We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.

College / School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics
Date Deposited: 01 Aug 2014 13:45
Enlighten Publications URL: http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/78453/
Related resource URL: http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/78453/
URI: http://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/id/eprint/41

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Baggaley, A. W. and Boys, R. J. and Golightly, A. and Sarson, G. R. and Shukurov, A. (2012); Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

University of Glasgow

10.1594/GFZ.CONTEXT.Ed1

Retrieved: 2017-09-22